Thursday, May 22, 2008

EVIDENCE OF ABSENCE - AGAIN

Last time I left out the math in a sketch of a proof for the fact that absence of evidence is evidence of absence. See that blog. Here is the math and remember, evidence and proof are two different concepts.

Defintions: A is evidence of B if and only if (iff) Prob(B/A) > Prob(B/not A).
Denote absence of evidence by a = not A and absence by b = not B.

Prob(B/A) > Prob(B/not A) iff 1 - Prob( not B/A) > 1- Prob(not B/not A) iff

Prob(not B/A) <>Prob(not B/ not not A)

iff Prob(b/a) > Prob (b/ not a). QED


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